Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.89
No47%
ours 2.13
All matches
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Fagiano Okayama — FC Tokyo, J1 League
Japan, J1 League
Fagiano Okayama
LWWWL
FC Tokyo
WWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%26%39%
Fagiano Okayama36%Draw26%FC Tokyo39%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fagiano Okayama2.79—
XDraw3.91—
2FC Tokyo2.59—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFagiano OkayamaFC TokyoCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.500.000.50
Corners11.012.011.5
Cards2.53.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Fagiano OkayamaFC Tokyo
Fagiano Okayama 36%, FC Tokyo 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Fagiano Okayama 36%Draw 26%FC Tokyo 39%
1st half
36 · 42 · 22
2nd half
22 · 39 · 39
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Fagiano Okayama
- homeKyoto Sanga FC1:2
- awayUrawa Red Diamonds2:1
- homeSanfrecce Hiroshima3:2
- awayJEF United Ichihara Chiba2:1
- awayNagoya Grampus1:2
FC Tokyo
- homeNagoya Grampus1:0
- awayGamba Osaka2:0
- homeKyoto Sanga FC2:0
- awayShimizu S-Pulse1:1
- awayV-Varen Nagasaki3:0
Head to head
- 10/25/25J1 League1:3
- 04/06/25J1 League1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Sanfrecce Hiroshima852120:617
Sanfrecce Hiroshima852120:6174
FC Machida Zelvia852121:1017
FC Machida Zelvia852121:10175FC Tokyo852114:817
FC Tokyo852114:8176
Yokohama F. Marinos842213:914
Yokohama F. Marinos842213:9147
Kawasaki Frontale834116:1213
Kawasaki Frontale834116:12138
Kashima Antlers841317:1613
Kashima Antlers841317:16139Fagiano Okayama841311:1013
Fagiano Okayama841311:101310
Urawa Red Diamonds840416:1812
Urawa Red Diamonds840416:181211
Cerezo Osaka83237:1211
Cerezo Osaka83237:1211Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.