Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.66
No40%
ours 2.52
All matches
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Kawasaki Frontale — Fagiano Okayama, J1 League
Japan, J1 League
Kawasaki Frontale
DWWLW
Fagiano Okayama
LWWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%24%24%
Kawasaki Frontale53%Draw24%Fagiano Okayama24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Kawasaki Frontale1.89—
XDraw4.25—
2Fagiano Okayama4.24—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricKawasaki FrontaleFagiano OkayamaCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded0.670.831.50
Corners9.010.79.8
Cards2.32.34.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Kawasaki FrontaleFagiano Okayama
Kawasaki Frontale 53%, Fagiano Okayama 24%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
Kawasaki Frontale 53%Draw 24%Fagiano Okayama 24%
1st half
41 · 36 · 23
2nd half
43 · 35 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Kawasaki Frontale
- homeKashima Antlers3:3
- awayMito Hollyhock1:0
- homeShimizu S-Pulse3:1
- awayFC Machida Zelvia1:2
- homeJEF United Ichihara Chiba4:2
Fagiano Okayama
- homeKyoto Sanga FC1:2
- awayUrawa Red Diamonds2:1
- homeSanfrecce Hiroshima3:2
- awayJEF United Ichihara Chiba2:1
- awayNagoya Grampus1:2
Head to head
- 11/08/25J1 League1:1
- 03/16/25J1 League0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
FC Tokyo852114:817
FC Tokyo852114:8176
Yokohama F. Marinos842213:914
Yokohama F. Marinos842213:9147Kawasaki Frontale834116:1213
Kawasaki Frontale834116:12138
Kashima Antlers841317:1613
Kashima Antlers841317:16139Fagiano Okayama841311:1013
Fagiano Okayama841311:101310
Urawa Red Diamonds840416:1812
Urawa Red Diamonds840416:181211
Cerezo Osaka83237:1211
Cerezo Osaka83237:1211Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.