FC St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. BundesligaOctober 11 at 11:30 AM

FC St. Pauli

0.9DWDLD

—

Karlsruher SC

1.7LLDLD

Outcome probability

512524

FC St. Pauli51%Draw25%Karlsruher SC24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC St. Pauli51%1.97—

XDraw25%4.01—

2Karlsruher SC24%4.12—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC St. PauliKarlsruher SCCombined

Goals scored1.331.002.33

Conceded1.332.003.33

Corners10.711.811.3

Cards2.51.84.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC St. PauliKarlsruher SC
8Table position14
46.70%Possession47.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC St. Pauli look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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