FC Progrès Niederkorn — Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97, National Division

Luxembourg, National DivisionOctober 17 at 03:30 PM

FC Progrès Niederkorn

2.1DWWLL

—

Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97

1.9WWLWW

Outcome probability

432235

FC Progrès Niederkorn43%Draw22%Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 9735%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Progrès Niederkorn43%2.32—

XDraw22%4.50—

2Uewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 9735%2.88—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.71

No41%

ours 2.42

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Progrès NiederkornUewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97Combined

Goals scored1.002.833.83

Conceded0.671.001.67

Corners6.57.87.1

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Progrès NiederkornUewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 97
5Table position6
52.30%Possession50.30%
6.1Days of rest6.1
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Progrès Niederkorn: a home win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 9.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context