FC Penafiel — AVS Futebol, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaProOctober 9 at 05:00 PM

FC Penafiel

1.8WWWWD

—

AVS Futebol

0.8DLWDD

Outcome probability

442630

FC Penafiel44%Draw26%AVS Futebol30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Penafiel44%2.27—

XDraw26%3.80—

2AVS Futebol30%3.37—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.20

No55%

ours 1.83

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC PenafielAVS FutebolCombined

Goals scored2.171.003.17

Conceded0.831.001.83

Corners7.77.77.7

Cards2.72.85.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC PenafielAVS Futebol
2Table position12
48.50%Possession45.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Penafiel look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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