Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.33
All matches
Machida Zelvia — V-Varen Nagasaki, J1 League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
61%21%17%
Machida Zelvia61%Draw21%V-Varen Nagasaki17%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Machida Zelvia1.63—
XDraw4.66—
2V-Varen Nagasaki5.79—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Machida ZelviaV-Varen Nagasaki
FC Machida Zelvia 61%, V-Varen Nagasaki 17%. The safest is “FC Machida Zelvia or draw” at 83%.
FC Machida Zelvia 61%Draw 21%V-Varen Nagasaki 17%
1st half
49 · 38 · 13
2nd half
45 · 31 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMachida ZelviaV-Varen NagasakiCombined
Goals scored2.201.203.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Machida Zelvia- 4 clean sheets in the last 50:0, 5:0, 3:0, 1:0, 2:4
- Best attack in the league — 30 goals in 12 matches1st place, 27 points
- 11 goals in the last 5 matches0:0, 5:0, 3:0, 1:0, 2:4
V-Varen Nagasaki- Winless away in 7 matches0:1, 0:2, 1:1, 1:3, 2:4
- One win in the last 5 matches0:1, 4:0, 0:2, 1:1, 1:1
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Machida Zelvia
- awayVissel Kobe0:0
- awayShimizu S-Pulse5:0
- homeAvispa Fukuoka3:0
- awayKyoto Sanga1:0
- homeKashiwa Reysol2:4
V-Varen Nagasaki
- awayUrawa Reds0:1
- homeSanfrecce Hiroshima4:0
- awayKashima Antlers0:2
- awayJEF United Chiba1:1
- homeCerezo Osaka1:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Japan, J1 League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.