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Dundee 2:1 Motherwell, Premiership: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Scotland, PremiershipMatch finished

1.7WLDWW
2:1HT 2:1
1.9WDLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
31%26%43%
DundeePrice 3.1131%DrawPrice 3.3426%MotherwellPrice 2.2343%
Line-upsDundee4-2-3-1—Motherwell4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Dundee4-2-3-1Motherwell4-2-3-1

Dundee4-2-3-1

Coach: S. Pressley

Starting XI

  • 1GKEnglandO. Goodman
  • 7MFEnglandD. Wright
  • 4DFWalesR. Astley
  • 5DFWalesO. Bevan
  • 12DFEnglandI. Samuels
  • 28MFWalesC. Jones
  • 48MFScotlandE. Hamilton
  • 16MFEnglandJ. Moorhouse
  • 19FWEnglandJ. Westley
  • 14MFScotlandA. Forrest
  • 21FWSwitzerlandB. Fink

Substitutes

  • 52DFC. Oosenbrugh
  • 9FWScotlandB. Wales
  • 6DFUSAM. Akinmboni
  • 27MFScotlandJ. Bevan
  • 60MFR. Bland
  • 2DFEnglandB. Halliday
  • 47MFA. Leiper
  • 13GKRepublic of IrelandK. O'Hara
  • 3DFEnglandI. Odutayo

Motherwell4-2-3-1

Coach: Alfred Johansson

Starting XI

  • 1GKNew ZealandA. Paulsen
  • 7MFWalesT. Sparrow
  • 3DFAustraliaJ. Girdwood-Reich
  • 5DFAustriaM. Moormann
  • 45MFEnglandM. Emmanuel
  • 8MFAustriaL. Fadinger
  • 71MFRepublic of IrelandJ. Hodge
  • 47FWEnglandS. Palmer-Houlden
  • 11MFScotlandA. Lowry
  • 19FWNigeriaI. Said
  • 18FWEnglandTawanda Jethro Maswanhise

Substitutes

  • 17MFGrenadaR. Charles-Cook
  • 13MFSwedenJ. Kanga
  • 4DFCanadaJamie Knight-Lebel
  • 63MFWalesD. Levitt
  • 21GKScotlandM. Connelly
  • 2DFScotlandS. O'Donnell
  • 77FWSwitzerlandW. Vogt
  • 20DFEnglandDylan Williams
  • 15FWNorwayE. Björgólfs­son

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.27xG1.49
37Possession, %63
11Shots15
6Shots on target4
9Corners9
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
8Fouls9
1Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 64 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Motherwell43%

    Actual: Dundee — we had 31%

  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.551%
  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes54%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Dundee31%30%3.193.11+1.5
XDraw26%28%3.913.34-2.1
2Motherwell43%43%2.322.23+0.6

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Dundee

  • homeKilmarnock3:1
  • awaySt. Mirren1:2
  • homeRangers2:2
  • awayFalkirk2:1
  • homeMotherwell2:1

Motherwell

  • homeSt. Mirren1:0
  • awaySaint Johnstone2:2
  • homeHearts0:2
  • awayKilmarnock2:3
  • homeCeltic0:2

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Premiership2:1
  • 03/07/26Premiership2:1
  • 12/20/25Premiership0:1
  • 09/13/25Premiership1:1
  • 05/03/25Premiership1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Hearts1162324:1720
4Falkirk1253415:1218
5Dundee1152417:1317
6Dundee United1144316:1616
7Saint Johnstone1235415:1914
8St. Mirren1242612:2014
9Motherwell1233614:2012
10Aberdeen1132612:1411
11Kilmarnock1223713:289

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.