Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.37
All matches
—
Falkirk — Celtic, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Falkirk
1.7DWDLL
Celtic
3.6LLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
19%20%60%
Falkirk19%Draw20%Celtic60%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Falkirk5.16—
XDraw4.90—
2Celtic1.66—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFalkirkCelticCombined
Goals scored0.500.000.50
Conceded0.330.000.33
Corners9.0——
Cards2.0——
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FalkirkCeltic
Falkirk FC 19%, Celtic FC 60%. The safest is “No draw” at 79%.
Falkirk FC 19%Draw 20%Celtic FC 60%
1st half
26 · 31 · 44
2nd half
24 · 36 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Falkirk
- awaySaint Johnstone1:1
- homeHearts2:1
- awayDundee United1:1
- homeRangers1:2
- awayCeltic1:2
Celtic
- homeRangers0:1
- homeFerencvaros1:3
- awaySaint Johnstone1:0
- awaySt. Mirren2:1
- homeAberdeen3:0
Head to head
- 08/29/26Premiership1:2
- 04/25/26Premiership1:3
- 02/01/26Premiership0:2
- 01/14/26Premiership0:1
- 10/29/25Premiership0:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Celtic760114:418
Celtic760114:4182
Rangers75118:416
Rangers75118:4163
Hearts741214:813
Hearts741214:8134
Dundee73139:710
Dundee73139:7105
St. Mirren73138:910
St. Mirren73138:9106
Saint Johnstone72239:108
Saint Johnstone72239:1087
Aberdeen72237:88
Aberdeen72237:888
Dundee United72239:118
Dundee United72239:1189
Motherwell72239:118
Motherwell72239:11810
Hibernian72148:117
Hibernian72148:11711Falkirk71336:96
Falkirk71336:9612
Kilmarnock71246:155
Kilmarnock71246:155Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.