Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.74
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
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Kilmarnock — Saint Johnstone, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Kilmarnock
1.2DWDLL
Saint Johnstone
1.2DLWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%25%28%
Kilmarnock47%Draw25%Saint Johnstone28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Kilmarnock2.11—
XDraw4.01—
2Saint Johnstone3.60—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricKilmarnockSaint JohnstoneCombined
Goals scored0.330.170.50
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners15.012.013.5
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
KilmarnockSaint Johnstone
Kilmarnock FC 47%, Saint Johnstone FC 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Kilmarnock FC 47%Draw 25%Saint Johnstone FC 28%
1st half
40 · 37 · 23
2nd half
31 · 37 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Kilmarnock
- homeHearts1:1
- awayHibernian1:0
- awayAberdeen0:0
- homeSt. Mirren0:1
- homeDundee United0:4
Saint Johnstone
- homeFalkirk1:1
- homeCeltic0:1
- homeHibernian2:1
- awayDundee1:1
- awayHearts1:2
Head to head
- 08/02/26Premiership3:4
- 05/03/25Premiership2:0
- 02/15/25Premiership3:1
- 11/23/24Premiership0:1
- 08/11/24Premiership0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Dundee73139:710
Dundee73139:7105
St. Mirren73138:910
St. Mirren73138:9106Saint Johnstone72239:108
Saint Johnstone72239:1087
Aberdeen72237:88
Aberdeen72237:888
Dundee United72239:118
Dundee United72239:1189
Motherwell72239:118
Motherwell72239:11810
Hibernian72148:117
Hibernian72148:11711
Falkirk71336:96
Falkirk71336:9612Kilmarnock71246:155
Kilmarnock71246:155Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.