Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81price 1.80
No45%
ours 2.23price 1.93
All matches
Daejeon Hana Citizen — Incheon United, K League 1: match prediction and stats
Match prediction and stats
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%27%26%
Daejeon Hana CitizenPrice 2.0247%DrawPrice 3.4527%Incheon UnitedPrice 3.6526%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Daejeon Hana Citizen2.132.02-0.7
XDraw3.683.45+0.2
2Incheon United3.863.65+0.5
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4185 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4170 matches
Cards prediction
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4155 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Daejeon Hana CitizenIncheon United
Daejeon Citizen FC 47%, Incheon United FC 26%. The safest is “Daejeon Citizen FC or draw” at 74%.
Daejeon Citizen FC 47%Draw 27%Incheon United FC 26%
1st half
28 · 47 · 25
2nd half
41 · 35 · 23
Prices: 2.02 · 3.45 · 3.65
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricDaejeon Hana CitizenIncheon UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.601.603.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Daejeon Hana Citizen- Unbeaten at home in 7 matches3:2, 2:1, 2:2, 3:2, 2:1
- Unbeaten in 8 matches0:0, 2:1, 3:2, 2:1, 1:1
- Won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings1:1, 0:0, 3:1, 2:1, 2:1
Incheon United- 3 clean sheets in the last 51:0, 3:1, 1:1, 3:0, 0:0
- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 7.7 per match12 teams in the league
- Unbeaten in 6 matches1:0, 3:1, 1:1, 3:0, 0:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Daejeon Hana Citizen
- awayJeonbuk Hyundai Motors0:0
- awayGimcheon Sangmu2:1
- homeGwangju3:2
- homeJeonbuk Hyundai Motors2:1
- awayIncheon United1:1
Incheon United
- awayFC Seoul1:0
- homeJeju United3:1
- awayGangwon1:1
- homePohang Steelers3:0
- awayGangwon0:0
Head to head
- 09/20/26K League 11:1
- 05/05/26K League 10:0
- 03/18/26K League 13:1
- 11/10/24K League 12:1
- 08/17/24K League 12:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
South Korea, K League 1: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.