All matches

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador — Macara, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
2.5LWWDD
—
Macara
2.4WWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
50%25%25%
Universidad Catolica del EcuadorMarket 1.6550%DrawMarket 3.7425%MacaraMarket 5.0725%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador50%61%1.991.65-10.2
XDraw25%27%4.033.74-1.9
2Macara25%20%4.025.07+5.2

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69book 1.79

No41%

ours 2.45book 1.90

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUniversidad Catolica del EcuadorMacaraCombined
Goals scored2.001.673.67
Conceded1.171.502.67
Corners9.38.38.8
Cards0.71.52.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Universidad Catolica del EcuadorMacara

CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador 50%, CSD Macará 25%. The safest is “CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador or draw” at 77%.

CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador 50%Draw 25%CSD Macará 25%
1st half
42 · 36 · 22
2nd half
40 · 35 · 25

Bookmakers: 1.65 · 3.74 · 5.07

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

71%1.36
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

  • awayLDU Quito1:2
  • homeOrense2:1
  • awayDelfin1:0
  • homeAucas1:1
  • awayIndependiente del Valle2:2

Macara

  • awayAucas2:1
  • homeEmelec1:0
  • awayIndependiente del Valle1:3
  • homeManta4:3
  • awayOrense2:1

Head to head

  • 08/18/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:1
  • 04/24/26Primera Categoría Serie A4:0
  • 07/27/25Primera Categoría Serie A4:1
  • 04/06/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
  • 11/30/24Primera Categoría Serie A2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Independiente del Valle30242473:3374
2Macara31166943:3454
3Universidad Catolica del Ecuador31149852:2951
4Aucas31148934:3050
5LDU Quito311471033:2549

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.