All matches

Platense — Juticalpa, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras

Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras

Platense
1.4LDLWL
—
Juticalpa
0.9WLLWL
Outcome probability
572716
Platense57%Draw27%Juticalpa16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Platense57%1.76—
XDraw27%3.69—
2Juticalpa16%6.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPlatenseJuticalpaCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded2.332.174.50
Corners13.59.311.4
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    PlatenseJuticalpa
    12Table position11
    47.70%Possession46.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour CD Platense: a home win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Platense

  • homeLobos UPNFM0:2
  • awayEstrella Roja2:2
  • awayOlimpia1:4
  • homeAtletico Independiente2:1
  • awayAtletico Choloma0:2

Juticalpa

  • homeMarathon3:2
  • awayAtletico Independiente1:2
  • homePolicia National0:3
  • homeLobos UPNFM1:0
  • awayEstrella Roja2:5

Head to head

  • 04/16/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
  • 02/22/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras4:0
  • 09/28/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
  • 07/30/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Lobos UPNFM82247:128
10Atletico Choloma82156:87
11Juticalpa82068:196
12Platense81256:185

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.