Casa Pia AC — CD Santa Clara, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 10 at 02:30 PM

Casa Pia AC

1.3WLDLL

—

CD Santa Clara

2.1DWWDW

Outcome probability

192952

Casa Pia AC19%Draw29%CD Santa Clara52%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Casa Pia AC19%5.18—

XDraw29%3.47—

2CD Santa Clara52%1.93—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes34%

ours 2.90

No66%

ours 1.52

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCasa Pia ACCD Santa ClaraCombined

Goals scored0.501.502.00

Conceded2.500.332.83

Corners10.79.510.1

Cards2.02.54.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Casa Pia ACCD Santa Clara
17Table position4
42.00%Possession44.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, CD Santa Clara still look stronger — an away win is rated at 52%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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