All matches

CA Paranaense — SE Palmeiras, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

CA Paranaense
2.5WDLDW
—
SE Palmeiras
3.5DWDDW
Outcome probability
302941
CA Paranaense30%Draw29%SE Palmeiras41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CA Paranaense30%3.35—
XDraw29%3.45—
2SE Palmeiras41%2.43—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.00

No50%

ours 2.00

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA ParanaenseSE PalmeirasCombined
Goals scored1.500.502.00
Conceded1.670.171.84
Corners10.011.810.9
Cards2.53.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CA ParanaenseSE Palmeiras
    3Table position2
    43.80%Possession62.00%
    5Days of rest6.1
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    SE Palmeiras travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

CA Paranaense

  • homeEC Bahia2:1
  • awayCoritiba FBC3:3
  • awayCruzeiro EC1:3
  • homeFluminense FC3:3
  • awayBotafogo FR3:2

SE Palmeiras

  • awayGrêmio FB Porto Alegrense0:0
  • homeSão Paulo FC2:0
  • awayBotafogo FR0:0
  • awayMirassol Futebol Clube1:1
  • homeCR Vasco da Gama4:1

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Serie A0:1
  • 09/01/24Serie A0:2
  • 05/12/24Serie A2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CR Flamengo28186455:2360
2SE Palmeiras28169347:2157
3CA Paranaense28147743:3249
4Fluminense FC28139644:3648
5EC Bahia281210643:3546

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.