Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.33
All matches
—
Lanus — Velez Sarsfield, Primera División
Argentina, Primera División
Lanus
2.2DWWLD
Velez Sarsfield
2.2DWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%27%28%
Lanus45%Draw27%Velez Sarsfield28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lanus2.22—
XDraw3.75—
2Velez Sarsfield3.54—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLanusVelez SarsfieldCombined
Goals scored0.671.672.34
Conceded0.501.331.83
Corners9.88.08.9
Cards2.00.72.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LanusVelez Sarsfield
CA Lanús 45%, Club Atlético Vélez Sarsfield 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
CA Lanús 45%Draw 27%Club Atlético Vélez Sarsfield 28%
1st half
39 · 40 · 21
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lanus
- awayNewell's Old Boys0:0
- homeEstudiantes2:1
- homeDefensa y Justicia1:0
- awayBoca Juniors0:1
- homeArgentinos Juniors1:1
Velez Sarsfield
- homePlatense2:2
- homeTigre3:2
- awayNewell's Old Boys1:1
- homeEstudiantes1:0
- awayRiestra1:1
Head to head
- 03/21/26Primera División1:0
- 08/31/25Primera División0:3
- 02/22/25Primera División0:0
- 05/03/17Primera División2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Boca Juniors281311441:2350
Boca Juniors281311441:23506
River Plate301541142:2949
River Plate301541142:29497Velez Sarsfield281213335:2449
Velez Sarsfield281213335:24498
Gimnasia La Plata291451036:3747
Gimnasia La Plata291451036:37479
Estudiantes281351032:1944
Estudiantes281351032:194410
Huracan291111731:2444
Huracan291111731:244411
Instituto Córdoba26134932:2443
Instituto Córdoba26134932:244312
Independiente28118936:3541
Independiente28118936:354113
Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
Defensa y Justicia271010734:324014Lanus27108928:2638
Lanus27108928:263815
Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
Union de Santa Fe291071243:423716
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.