NK Maribor — NK Celje, PrvaLiga

Slovenia, PrvaLigaOctober 18 at 04:00 PM

NK Maribor

2.6DWDWW

—

NK Celje

2.9DLLLW

Outcome probability

412633

NK Maribor41%Draw26%NK Celje33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Maribor41%2.45—

XDraw26%3.78—

2NK Celje33%3.06—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.50

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK MariborNK CeljeCombined

Goals scored2.000.172.17

Conceded1.000.831.83

Corners10.68.59.6

Cards1.41.52.9

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK MariborNK Celje
1Table position7
7Days of rest3
1Matches in 14 days2
62.80%Possession59.30%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour NK Maribor: a home win is rated at 41%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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