All matches

Neftçi PFC Bakı — Sabah FK, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Neftçi PFC Bakı
2.7WWWLW
—
Sabah FK
3.4WWLWW
Outcome probability
262747
Neftçi PFC Bakı26%Draw27%Sabah FK47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Neftçi PFC Bakı26%3.84—
XDraw27%3.66—
2Sabah FK47%2.14—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNeftçi PFC BakıSabah FKCombined
Goals scored3.002.835.83
Conceded0.831.172.00
Corners9.010.29.6
Cards2.21.03.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Neftçi PFC BakıSabah FK
    1Table position2
    53.80%Possession56.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Sabah FK still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Neftçi PFC Bakı

  • awayFK Qabala3:0
  • awayMil Muğan FK3:2
  • homeFK Safa4:1
  • awayZira IK0:1
  • homeAraz FK5:0

Sabah FK

  • homeMil Muğan FK3:1
  • awayFK Safa3:0
  • awayManchester United FC0:4
  • homeZira IK5:0
  • awayAraz FK1:0

Head to head

  • 05/17/26Premyer Liqası2:1
  • 12/08/25Premyer Liqası0:2
  • 09/14/25Premyer Liqası0:0
  • 05/24/25Premyer Liqası0:1
  • 01/19/25Premyer Liqası1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftçi PFC Bakı650118:515
2Sabah FK550014:115
3Qarabağ Ağdam FK54109:413
4Turan-T IK63216:411

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.