All matches

FK Bokelj Kotor — FK Dečić, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Bokelj Kotor
1.5WDWLD
—
FK Dečić
1.8DLDLW
Outcome probability
372934
FK Bokelj Kotor37%Draw29%FK Dečić34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Bokelj Kotor37%2.70—
XDraw29%3.46—
2FK Dečić34%2.94—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.75

No64%

ours 1.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Bokelj KotorFK DečićCombined
Goals scored1.000.331.33
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners7.310.89.0
Cards1.01.32.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Bokelj KotorFK Dečić
    3Table position2
    48.00%Possession56.50%
    6Days of rest6
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Bokelj Kotor look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Bokelj Kotor

  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica3:0
  • awayFK Jezero Plav1:1
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj2:1
  • awayFK Mornar Bar0:2
  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica0:0

FK Dečić

  • homeFK Mornar Bar1:1
  • awayFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:2
  • homeOFK Petrovac1:1
  • awayFK Mladost Donja Gorica0:2
  • homeFK Jezero Plav2:1

Head to head

  • 08/17/26Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 05/24/26Montenegrin First League1:0
  • 04/04/26Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 12/06/25Montenegrin First League1:1
  • 09/27/25Montenegrin First League2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj951315:1016
2FK Dečić943210:715
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.