Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.66
No40%
ours 2.51
All matches
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Chapecoense — Mirassol, Serie A
Brazil, Serie A
Chapecoense
1.4DLWLW
Mirassol
2.5WDWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%25%38%
Chapecoense36%Draw25%Mirassol38%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Chapecoense2.76—
XDraw3.93—
2Mirassol2.61—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricChapecoenseMirassolCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.170.000.17
Corners12.07.09.5
Cards1.00.01.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ChapecoenseMirassol
Chapecoense AF 36%, Mirassol Futebol Clube 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Chapecoense AF 36%Draw 25%Mirassol Futebol Clube 38%
1st half
33 · 35 · 32
2nd half
31 · 38 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Chapecoense
- awayCA Mineiro1:1
- homeInternacional1:2
- awayCorinthians2:1
- awayGremio1:3
- homeSao Paulo1:0
Mirassol
- homeBotafogo2:0
- homeVitoria2:2
- awayCoritiba2:1
- awayFlamengo0:2
- homePalmeiras1:1
Head to head
- 05/10/26Serie A1:1
- 11/24/24Serie B0:1
- 08/05/24Serie B0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13
Vitoria28961328:4233
Vitoria28961328:423314
Corinthians28881229:3232
Corinthians28881229:323215Mirassol28881233:4232
Mirassol28881233:423216
Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
Vasco da Gama27871234:413117
Gremio28781330:3829
Gremio28781330:382918
Internacional286101230:3628
Internacional286101230:362819
Remo28581532:4723
Remo28581532:472320Chapecoense27391529:5318
Chapecoense27391529:5318Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.