Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.96
No49%
ours 2.04
All matches
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Motagua — Juticalpa, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Motagua
2.8LWDWW
Juticalpa
0.9WLLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
69%22%
Motagua69%Draw22%Juticalpa9%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Motagua1.44—
XDraw4.62—
2Juticalpa11.25—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMotaguaJuticalpaCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners13.08.010.5
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MotaguaJuticalpa
CD Motagua 69%, Juticalpa FC 9%. The safest is “CD Motagua or draw” at 88%.
CD Motagua 69%Draw 22%Juticalpa FC 9%
1st half
45 · 41 · 14
2nd half
46 · 36 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Motagua
- awayReal Espana0:1
- homePolicia National1:0
- awayAtletico Independiente0:0
- homeOlancho2:1
- homeLobos UPNFM4:1
Juticalpa
- homeMarathon3:2
- awayAtletico Independiente1:2
- homePolicia National0:3
- homeLobos UPNFM1:0
- awayEstrella Roja2:5
Head to head
- 08/02/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras3:0
- 04/19/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras2:1
- 02/25/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras2:1
- 12/07/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras7:1
- 09/21/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Olimpia852119:717
Olimpia852119:7173
Marathon852114:617
Marathon852114:6174Motagua841311:813
Motagua841311:8135
Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117
Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698
Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199
Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:12810
Atletico Choloma82156:87
Atletico Choloma82156:8711Juticalpa82068:196
Juticalpa82068:19612
Platense81256:185
Platense81256:185Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.