Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.69
No41%
ours 2.44
All matches
—
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — SC Freiburg, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3.1WWDWLSC Freiburg
2.7DWWWWOutcome probability
542422
Bayer 04 Leverkusen54%Draw24%SC Freiburg22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen1.85—
XDraw4.12—
2SC Freiburg4.64—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBayer 04 LeverkusenSC FreiburgCombined
Goals scored1.672.003.67
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners12.89.010.9
Cards1.31.83.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Bayer 04 LeverkusenSC Freiburg5Table position358.50%Possession53.30%2.9Days of rest2.82Matches in 14 days2 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a home win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
71%
Form and context
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- homeRasen Ballsport Leipzig2:0
- homeNK Celje2:0
- awayFC Augsburg2:2
- home1. FC Union Berlin4:0
- awaySV 07 Elversberg2:3
SC Freiburg
- awayEintracht Frankfurt2:2
- homeBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach5:0
- awaySC Paderborn 071:0
- homeSV Werder Bremen4:1
- homeMotherwell FC4:1
Head to head
- 03/07/26Bundesliga3:3
- 10/26/25Bundesliga2:0
- 05/04/25Bundesliga2:2
- 12/21/24Bundesliga5:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund44009:212
BVB 09 Borussia Dortmund44009:2122
FC Bayern München431014:210
FC Bayern München431014:2103SC Freiburg431012:310
SC Freiburg431012:3104
FC Augsburg421111:67
FC Augsburg421111:675Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:576
1. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
1. FSV Mainz 05421110:677
SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
SV 07 Elversberg42118:77