Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.47
All matches
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Ajax — Atalanta, UEFA Europa Conference League
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League
Ajax
3.3DWWLW
Atalanta
2.7LLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%26%38%
Ajax36%Draw26%Atalanta38%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ajax2.79—
XDraw3.88—
2Atalanta2.61—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAjaxAtalantaCombined
Goals scored2.000.332.33
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners13.09.711.3
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AjaxAtalanta
AFC Ajax 36%, Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
AFC Ajax 36%Draw 26%Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 38%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Ajax
- homeExcelsior2:2
- homeWillem II5:1
- awayFortuna Sittard5:1
- homePSV1:3
- awayTelstar4:0
Atalanta
- awayJuventus0:2
- homeCagliari1:2
- awayRoma1:2
- homeBologna1:0
- awayHapoel Tel Aviv1:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Ajax651022:1016
Ajax651022:10162
Nordsjaelland650117:315
Nordsjaelland650117:3153
Partizan650113:515
Partizan650113:5154
Rapid Vienna642019:814
Rapid Vienna642019:8145
Copenhagen642017:614
Copenhagen642017:6146
Lugano642013:514
Lugano642013:5147
Braga64208:014
Braga64208:0148
Riga642012:614
Riga642012:6149
Borac Banja Luka641114:713
Borac Banja Luka641114:71310
Inter Turku834111:1013
Inter Turku834111:101311
Drita633014:512
Drita633014:51212
Midtjylland440011:312
Midtjylland440011:31213
Jablonec64029:512
Jablonec64029:51214
Panathinaikos633011:812
Panathinaikos633011:81215
Dinamo Tirana832315:911
Dinamo Tirana832315:91116
Rakow632112:611
Rakow632112:61117
Brann632113:911
Brann632113:91118
Hajduk Split431014:610
Hajduk Split431014:61019
Shkendija631211:510
Shkendija631211:51020
RFS631210:710
RFS631210:71021
Motherwell631210:810
Motherwell631210:81022
Austria Vienna63128:610
Austria Vienna63128:61023
Gent62405:310
Gent62405:31024
Rijeka63125:710
Rijeka63125:71025
Levadia430113:49
Levadia430113:4926
Apollon Limassol430110:49
Apollon Limassol430110:4927
Vitebsk43017:39
Vitebsk43017:3928
Auda Riga43018:79
Auda Riga43018:7929
Zalgiris630314:169
Zalgiris630314:16930
Inter Escaldes42208:28
Inter Escaldes42208:2831
Hapoel Tel Aviv62227:58
Hapoel Tel Aviv62227:5832
Sion622214:138
Sion622214:13833
Hibernian62228:78
Hibernian62228:7834
Ilves62226:58
Ilves62226:5835
NSI Runavik62228:98
NSI Runavik62228:9836
Paide62227:88
Paide62227:8837
Twente421113:57
Twente421113:5738
HJK42119:37
HJK42119:3739
Vaduz42119:47
Vaduz42119:4740
Zira42117:27
Zira42117:2741
Pyunik42114:17
Pyunik42114:1742
Stjarnan42117:57
Stjarnan42117:5743
Tromso42117:57
Tromso42117:5744
Ballkani42117:67
Ballkani42117:6745
Dinamo Minsk62135:57
Dinamo Minsk62135:5746
Bohemians62138:97
Bohemians62138:9747
Dinamo Tbilisi42118:97
Dinamo Tbilisi42118:9748
Nomme Kalju42117:87
Nomme Kalju42117:8749
DAC Dunajska Streda42117:97
DAC Dunajska Streda42117:9750
Freiburg22007:26
Freiburg22007:2651
St. Gallen420210:66
St. Gallen420210:6652
Monaco22007:36
Monaco22007:3653
Ujvara42029:66
Ujvara42029:6654
GKS Katowice42026:66
GKS Katowice42026:6655
Beitar Jerusalem42026:66
Beitar Jerusalem42026:6656
Qarabag42024:56
Qarabag42024:5657
Santa Coloma42027:96
Santa Coloma42027:9658
Liepaja42024:66
Liepaja42024:6659
UNA Strassen42023:56
UNA Strassen42023:5660
Atletic Escaldes42024:86
Atletic Escaldes42024:8661
ETO Gyor41218:55
ETO Gyor41218:5562
Artsakh41216:65
Artsakh41216:6563
Brighton21104:04
Brighton21104:0464
Paphos21105:34
Paphos21105:3465
KuPS21102:14
KuPS21102:1466Atalanta21101:04
Atalanta21101:0467
Shelbourne41129:94
Shelbourne41129:9468
IFK Goteborg41125:54
IFK Goteborg41125:54Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.