All matches

Napoli — Frosinone, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

Napoli
3.1DWLLL
—
Frosinone
2.0WDWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
54%25%21%
NapoliMarket 1.4954%DrawMarket 5.0025%FrosinoneMarket 7.0021%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Napoli54%67%1.861.49-13.5
XDraw25%20%4.045.00+4.8
2Frosinone21%14%4.667.00+7.2

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73book 1.63

No42%

ours 2.37book 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNapoliFrosinoneCombined
Goals scored1.171.802.97
Conceded1.170.801.97
Corners9.813.411.6
Cards1.02.43.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

NapoliFrosinone

SSC Napoli 54%, Frosinone Calcio 21%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

SSC Napoli 54%Draw 25%Frosinone Calcio 21%
1st half
38 · 36 · 26
2nd half
38 · 37 · 24

Bookmakers: 1.49 · 5.00 · 7.00

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

66%1.72
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Napoli

  • awayFiorentina1:1
  • homeBologna1:0
  • homeArsenal0:1
  • awayInter Milan2:3
  • homeComo1:2

Frosinone

  • homeComo2:0
  • awayGenoa1:1
  • homeVenezia3:2
  • awayFiorentina3:0
  • homeJuventus0:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Cagliari54015:212
5AC Milan532010:411
6Frosinone53119:410
7Juventus53118:410
8Como53119:610
9Napoli52127:67
10Sassuolo52129:97
11Atalanta52035:76

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.