All matches

Real Cartagena vs Real Cundinamarca prediction

Colombia, Primera B

VARStats prediction for 7 November: Real Cartagena 51%, draw 26%, Real Cundinamarca 23%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
51%26%23%
Real Cartagena51%Draw26%Real Cundinamarca23%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Real Cartagena51%1.96—
XDraw26%3.92—
2Real Cundinamarca23%4.27—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.74

No43%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4407 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4392 matches

Cards prediction

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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4375 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Real CartagenaReal Cundinamarca

Real Cartagena FC SA 51%, Real Cundinamarca 23%. The safest is “Real Cartagena FC SA or draw” at 75%.

Real Cartagena FC SA 51%Draw 25%Real Cundinamarca 23%
1st half
34 · 42 · 23
2nd half
43 · 34 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total fouls: Over 20.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricReal CartagenaReal CundinamarcaCombined
Goals scored1.400.201.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Real Cartagena
  • Best attack in the league — 60 goals in 39 matches3rd place, 62 points
  • Unbeaten in 5 matches0:0, 1:1, 3:0, 1:1, 2:2
  • 3 draws in the last 5 head-to-head meetings1:1, 1:0, 2:1, 0:0, 0:0
Real Cundinamarca
  • 3 clean sheets in the last 50:0, 0:2, 1:0, 0:1, 0:0
  • Only 1 goal in the last 5 matches0:0, 0:2, 1:0, 0:1, 0:0
  • One win in the last 5 matches0:0, 0:2, 1:0, 0:1, 0:0

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Real Cartagena

  • awayTigres0:0
  • awayBarranquilla1:1
  • homePatriotas FC3:0
  • awayDeportes Quindio1:1
  • awayAtletico FC2:2

Real Cundinamarca

  • homeTigres0:0
  • awayDeportes Quindio0:2
  • homeIndependiente Yumbo1:0
  • awayTigres0:1
  • homeBogota FC0:0

Head to head

  • 08/02/26Primera B1:1
  • 01/31/26Primera B1:0
  • 11/17/25Primera B2:1
  • 11/12/25Primera B0:0
  • 08/05/25Primera B0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Envigado FC391813853:3367
2Deportes Quindio371910840:2667
3Real Cartagena391614960:4362
4AD Unión Magdalena371711951:3562
6Tigres3813131236:3152
7Independiente Yumbo311211833:2547
8Bogota FC3610141230:3644
9Real Cundinamarca3210111134:3341
10Barranquilla3610101644:4840
11Boca Juniors de Cali318111236:4135

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.