PFC Cherno More Varna — PFC Levski Sofia, First League

Bulgaria, First LeagueOctober 11 at 02:30 PM

PFC Cherno More Varna

1.9DDLLW

—

PFC Levski Sofia

3.8LDWWW

Outcome probability

1971

PFC Cherno More Varna11%Draw19%PFC Levski Sofia71%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1PFC Cherno More Varna11%9.38—

XDraw19%5.37—

2PFC Levski Sofia71%1.41—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.54

No61%

ours 1.65

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPFC Cherno More VarnaPFC Levski SofiaCombined

Goals scored1.331.002.33

Conceded2.000.502.50

Corners8.29.08.6

Cards2.71.23.9

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
PFC Cherno More VarnaPFC Levski Sofia
13Table position1
51.70%Possession63.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
PFC Levski Sofia travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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