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Pendikspor — Istanbulspor, 1. Lig: match prediction and stats

Match prediction and stats

Turkey, 1. Lig

1.8DLLLD
  
1.6LLLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
51%27%23%
Pendikspor51%Draw27%Istanbulspor23%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and second estimate

Our probability next to the second estimate — independent, with no mark-up. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelSecond estimateΔ
1Pendikspor51%——
XDraw27%——
2Istanbulspor23%——

our modelsecond estimate — independent, no mark-up

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the second estimate.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

No44%

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the second estimate.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches

Cards prediction

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

PendiksporIstanbulspor

Pendik Spor Kulübü 51%, İstanbulspor AŞ 23%. The safest is “Pendik Spor Kulübü or draw” at 77%.

Pendik Spor Kulübü 51%Draw 27%İstanbulspor AŞ 23%
1st half
42 · 38 · 20
2nd half
37 · 35 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots: Over 21.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with Premium

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPendiksporIstanbulsporCombined
Goals scored1.000.601.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other nine metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Pendikspor
  • Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches11 goals conceded
  • Winless in 6 matches2:2, 0:2, 1:2, 1:4, 1:1
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 52:2, 0:2, 1:2, 1:4, 1:1
Istanbulspor
  • 4 defeats in a row0:5, 0:2, 2:4, 0:1, 1:0
  • Relegation zone: 19th of 20
  • Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches12 goals conceded

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Pendikspor

  • homeKayserispor2:2
  • awayBursaspor0:2
  • homeVanspor1:2
  • awaySivasspor1:4
  • homeBodrum Belediyesi Bodrum Spor Kulübü1:1

Istanbulspor

  • awayMuglaspor0:5
  • homeAntalyaspor0:2
  • awayBatman Petrolspor2:4
  • homeErokspor0:1
  • awayManisa FK1:0

Head to head

  • 03/14/261. Lig1:1
  • 11/02/251. Lig0:0
  • 04/27/251. Lig2:5
  • 12/21/241. Lig1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15Sivasspor1227315:1813
16Vanspor1233613:2212
17Pendikspor1225514:2311
18Manisa FK1224619:2210
19Istanbulspor121299:315
20Boluspor1101103:251

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the second estimate on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.