MFK Ružomberok — MŠK Žilina, Super Liga

Slovakia, Super LigaOctober 11 at 01:30 PM

MFK Ružomberok

1.2LWDLL

—

MŠK Žilina

2.5WDWWW

Outcome probability

162163

MFK Ružomberok16%Draw21%MŠK Žilina63%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1MFK Ružomberok16%6.23—

XDraw21%4.85—

2MŠK Žilina63%1.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80

No44%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMFK RužomberokMŠK ŽilinaCombined

Goals scored0.832.833.66

Conceded1.831.673.50

Corners8.511.39.9

Cards2.52.34.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
MFK RužomberokMŠK Žilina
12Table position2
39.20%Possession52.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
MŠK Žilina travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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