Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.03book 2.20
No51%
ours 1.97book 1.60
All matches
Lincoln Red Imps — Hajduk Split, UEFA Europa Conference League
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
11%20%70%
Lincoln Red ImpsMarket 10.5011%DrawMarket 5.2720%Hajduk SplitMarket 1.3370%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lincoln Red Imps9.2010.50+2.4
XDraw5.095.27+2.2
2Hajduk Split1.441.33-4.6
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lincoln Red ImpsHajduk Split
Lincoln Red Imps FC 11%, HNK Hajduk Split 69%. The safest is “HNK Hajduk Split or draw” at 89%.
Lincoln Red Imps FC 11%Draw 20%HNK Hajduk Split 69%
Bookmakers: 10.50 · 5.27 · 1.33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Match result: Away
70%1.33
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLincoln Red ImpsHajduk SplitCombined
Goals scored1.001.602.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Lincoln Red Imps- Winless at home in 4 matches1:4, 0:2, 1:1, 0:0, 3:1
- 14 days’ rest vs 5 for the opponent
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches9 goals conceded
Hajduk Split- Unbeaten in 5 matches2:2, 1:0, 1:0, 2:1, 2:1
- Led at half-time in 7 of 10 matches
- 2.0 goals per game away6 matches
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Lincoln Red Imps
- homeTwente1:4
- awayBrann1:2
- awayLarne3:0
- homeLarne0:2
- awayOmonia0:1
Hajduk Split
- awayIstra2:2
- awayThun1:0
- homeVarazdin1:0
- homeAjax2:1
- homeDinamo Zagreb2:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.