Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79book 1.75
No44%
ours 2.27book 1.97
All matches
AGF Aarhus — Braga, UEFA Europa Conference League
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
26%27%46%
AGF AarhusMarket 3.6526%DrawMarket 3.4027%BragaMarket 2.1446%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AGF Aarhus3.823.650.0
XDraw3.653.40-0.8
2Braga2.152.14+0.8
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AGF AarhusBraga
Aarhus Gymnastikforening 26%, Sporting Braga 46%. The safest is “Sporting Braga or draw” at 74%.
Aarhus Gymnastikforening 26%Draw 27%Sporting Braga 46%
Bookmakers: 3.65 · 3.40 · 2.14
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
50%1.41
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAGF AarhusBragaCombined
Goals scored1.400.802.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
AGF Aarhus- Unbeaten at home in 4 matches2:1, 1:1, 3:0, 2:2, 0:2
Braga- Winless away in 4 matches0:1, 0:3, 0:0, 1:2, 2:1
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches9 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches0:1, 2:0, 1:2, 0:3, 1:3
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
AGF Aarhus
- homeViborg FF2:1
- homeEgnatia1:1
- awayCopenhagen1:1
- awayGent0:1
- homeSonderjyskE3:0
Braga
- awayNacional0:1
- homeGent2:0
- homeGil Vicente1:2
- awayCopenhagen0:3
- homeSporting CP1:3
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.