All matches

KF Llapi Podujevë — KF Ballkani, Superleague of Kosovo

Kosovo, Superleague of Kosovo

KF Llapi Podujevë
1.6LLWLL
—
KF Ballkani
2.4LDLWW
Outcome probability
322642
KF Llapi Podujevë32%Draw26%KF Ballkani42%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1KF Llapi Podujevë32%3.12—
XDraw26%3.89—
2KF Ballkani42%2.37—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKF Llapi PodujevëKF BallkaniCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded2.670.673.34
Corners7.37.27.2
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    KF Llapi PodujevëKF Ballkani
    9Table position6
    52.00%Possession52.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    KF Ballkani travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 9.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

KF Llapi Podujevë

  • awayKF Drenica Skënderaj0:4
  • homeUjvara e Malishevës0:4
  • awayKF Llamkos Kosova Vushtrri4:0
  • homeKF Dukagjini Klina1:2
  • awayFC Prishtina0:4

KF Ballkani

  • awayUjvara e Malishevës1:2
  • homeKF Dukagjini Klina0:0
  • awayKF Gjilani0:1
  • homeKF Feronikeli2:0
  • awayKF Drenica Skënderaj2:0

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Superleague of Kosovo1:0
  • 03/09/26Superleague of Kosovo2:0
  • 11/23/25Superleague of Kosovo4:2
  • 09/21/25Superleague of Kosovo2:2
  • 05/17/25Superleague of Kosovo1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4KF Drita63218:511
5KF Gjilani732210:811
6KF Ballkani73139:810
7KF Drenica Skënderaj72328:89
8KF Feronikeli72055:136
9KF Llapi Podujevë71068:213
10KF Llamkos Kosova Vushtrri70074:190

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.