GAIS — IK Sirius Fotboll, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 10 at 01:00 PM

GAIS

2.4WDWLL

—

IK Sirius Fotboll

2.4WWLLL

Outcome probability

402436

GAIS40%Draw24%IK Sirius Fotboll36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1GAIS40%2.51—

XDraw24%4.08—

2IK Sirius Fotboll36%2.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.14

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGAISIK Sirius FotbollCombined

Goals scored1.171.002.17

Conceded0.501.502.00

Corners8.811.210.0

Cards1.61.83.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
GAISIK Sirius Fotboll
10Table position1
56.80%Possession39.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour GAIS: a home win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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