Both teams to score
Yes45%
ours 2.23
No55%
ours 1.81
All matches
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FK Ufa — FK Arsenal Tula, FNL
Russia, FNL
FK Ufa
DLDDW
FK Arsenal Tula
LDLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%30%25%
FK Ufa45%Draw30%FK Arsenal Tula25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Ufa2.24—
XDraw3.34—
2FK Arsenal Tula3.94—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFK UfaFK Arsenal TulaCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.832.002.83
Corners8.48.08.2
Cards1.81.63.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FK UfaFK Arsenal Tula
FK Ufa 45%, FK Arsenal Tula 25%. The safest is “FK Ufa or draw” at 74%.
FK Ufa 45%Draw 30%FK Arsenal Tula 25%
1st half
36 · 45 · 18
2nd half
23 · 52 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
FK Ufa
- homeFK Torpedo Moskva0:0
- awayFK Chelyabinsk1:2
- homeFK Volga Ulyanovsk2:2
- homeVeles Moskva1:1
- awayFK Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk1:0
FK Arsenal Tula
- awayFK Yenisey Krasnoyarsk1:3
- homeFK SKA-Khabarovsk2:2
- awayFK Volga Ulyanovsk0:3
- homeFK Ural2:2
- awayVeles Moskva0:2
Head to head
- 11/16/25FNL1:2
- 09/20/25FNL2:2
- 05/18/25FNL1:2
- 09/29/24FNL0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Veles Moskva1372417:1623
Veles Moskva1372417:16236
FK Torpedo Moskva1263321:921
FK Torpedo Moskva1263321:9217FK Ufa1246216:1318
FK Ufa1246216:13188
FK Rotor Volgograd1252520:1417
FK Rotor Volgograd1252520:14179
FK Shinnik Yaroslavl1237215:1316
FK Shinnik Yaroslavl1237215:131610
FK Volga Ulyanovsk1342716:1914
FK Volga Ulyanovsk1342716:191411
FK Yenisey Krasnoyarsk1235415:2014
FK Yenisey Krasnoyarsk1235415:201412FK Arsenal Tula1234512:2213
FK Arsenal Tula1234512:221313
FK Leningradets Leningradskaya Oblast1234510:2013
FK Leningradets Leningradskaya Oblast1234510:201314
FK Chelyabinsk1233613:1912
FK Chelyabinsk1233613:1912Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.