All matches

FK Teplice — SK Sigma Olomouc, First League

Czech Republic, First League

FK Teplice
1.9WLWWL
—
SK Sigma Olomouc
2.0LWWLW
Outcome probability
402733
FK Teplice40%Draw27%SK Sigma Olomouc33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Teplice40%2.47—
XDraw27%3.72—
2SK Sigma Olomouc33%3.06—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK TepliceSK Sigma OlomoucCombined
Goals scored1.331.833.16
Conceded1.501.332.83
Corners9.89.29.5
Cards1.71.73.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK TepliceSK Sigma Olomouc
    41.80%Possession54.30%
    5Table position4
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Teplice look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Teplice

  • awayFC Hradec Králové2:0
  • homeSK Slavia Praha0:2
  • awayFC FASTAV Zlín3:1
  • homeFK Jablonec 2:0
  • homeFC Zbrojovka Brno0:2

SK Sigma Olomouc

  • homeAC Sparta Praha0:3
  • awayFC Viktoria Plzeň3:2
  • homeBohemians 19053:0
  • awayFC Banik Ostrava0:1
  • homeFK Pardubice3:1

Head to head

  • 02/22/26First League1:3
  • 09/20/25First League0:0
  • 11/30/24First League1:0
  • 08/03/24First League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2FC Slovan Liberec962113:420
3FK Mladá Boleslav852117:917
4SK Sigma Olomouc951316:1316
5FK Teplice951317:1516
6FC Zbrojovka Brno951312:1216
7AC Sparta Praha950418:1215

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.