FK Košice — KFC Komárno, Super Liga

Slovakia, Super LigaOctober 10 at 01:30 PM

FK Košice

1.9WLWDL

—

KFC Komárno

1.1LDDDL

Outcome probability

622117

FK Košice62%Draw21%KFC Komárno17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Košice62%1.62—

XDraw21%4.69—

2KFC Komárno17%5.89—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK KošiceKFC KomárnoCombined

Goals scored2.330.833.16

Conceded1.831.673.50

Corners10.212.211.2

Cards2.02.54.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK KošiceKFC Komárno
7Table position10
47.00%Possession51.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FK Košice look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 62%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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