Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.65
No40%
ours 2.53
All matches
—
Esbjerg fB — Aalborg BK, 1st Division
Denmark, 1st Division
Esbjerg fB
LDLLL
Aalborg BK
1.1DDWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%27%36%
Esbjerg fB36%Draw27%Aalborg BK36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Esbjerg fB2.74—
XDraw3.69—
2Aalborg BK2.74—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricEsbjerg fBAalborg BKCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded2.331.503.83
Corners12.010.511.3
Cards0.71.72.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 878 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 877 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 874 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Esbjerg fBAalborg BK
Esbjerg fB 36%, Aalborg BK 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Esbjerg fB 36%Draw 27%Aalborg BK 36%
1st half
33 · 40 · 27
2nd half
32 · 33 · 35
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Esbjerg fB
- awayAkademisk Boldklub0:3
- homeHB Køge2:2
- awayFC Fredericia0:1
- homeVendsyssel FF0:2
- awayVejle Boldklub2:4
Aalborg BK
- homeVendsyssel FF2:2
- awayHvidovre IF2:2
- awayAkademisk Boldklub2:0
- homeHB Køge0:0
- awayHobro IK1:2
Head to head
- 03/21/261st Division1:1
- 08/19/251st Division1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
FC Fredericia935112:614
FC Fredericia935112:6144
Aarhus Fremad934210:913
Aarhus Fremad934210:9135Aalborg BK934211:1113
Aalborg BK934211:11136
Hobro IK941412:1613
Hobro IK941412:16137
Vendsyssel FF924310:1410
Vendsyssel FF924310:14108
Akademisk Boldklub923411:109
Akademisk Boldklub923411:1099
Hillerød Fodbold923413:149
Hillerød Fodbold923413:14910
Kolding IF915310:128
Kolding IF915310:12811
HB Køge914411:177
HB Køge914411:17712Esbjerg fB912610:195
Esbjerg fB912610:195Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.