Both teams to score
Yes45%
ours 2.23
No55%
ours 1.82
All matches
—
El Gouna — Smouha, Premier League
Egypt, Premier League
El Gouna
1.7LLLDD
Smouha
1.5WLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
35%38%27%
El Gouna35%Draw38%Smouha27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1El Gouna2.84—
XDraw2.61—
2Smouha3.77—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1031 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1030 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1023 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
El GounaSmouha
El Gounah 35%, Smouha SC 27%. The safest is “El Gounah or draw” at 72%.
El Gounah 35%Draw 38%Smouha SC 27%
1st half
26 · 46 · 28
2nd half
32 · 50 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricEl GounaSmouhaCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners9.47.68.5
Cards1.22.23.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
El Gouna
- homePetrojet1:2
- awayPyramids0:1
- homeAl Mokawloon0:1
- awayEl Qanah1:1
- homeCoca-Cola1:1
Smouha
- awayTala'ea El Gaish1:0
- homeCeramica Cleopatra0:2
- awayAl Ahly0:1
- homePetrol Asyut0:0
- awayAl Masry0:1
Head to head
- 10/27/25Premier League1:0
- 04/28/25Premier League1:1
- 12/01/24Premier League0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14
Wadi Degla51224:55
Wadi Degla51224:5515
ENPPI51136:94
ENPPI51136:9416Smouha51131:44
Smouha51131:4417
Abu Qir Semad51041:83
Abu Qir Semad51041:8318El Gouna50233:62
El Gouna50233:6219
Petrol Asyut50231:52
Petrol Asyut50231:5220
Ghazl El Mahalla50141:91
Ghazl El Mahalla50141:91Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.