Ferrocarril Midland — Atletico Rafaela, Prim B Nacional

Argentina, Prim B NacionalOctober 10 at 07:30 PM

Ferrocarril Midland

DLWWL

—

Atletico Rafaela

1.7LLWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

51%28%21%

Ferrocarril MidlandMarket 1.7551%DrawMarket 2.9528%Atletico RafaelaMarket 5.1021%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Ferrocarril Midland51%57%1.941.75-5.7

XDraw28%34%3.582.95-5.9

2Atletico Rafaela21%20%4.865.10+1.0

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.24book 2.51

No55%

ours 1.81book 1.46

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos: result and total

Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.

Combos come with a subscription: probability, fair odds and the market comparison for all 24 combinations.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFerrocarril MidlandAtletico RafaelaCombined

Goals scored1.001.502.50

Conceded1.001.832.83

Corners7.78.27.9

Cards2.32.54.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.