Both teams to score
Yes44%
ours 2.28book 1.92
No56%
ours 1.78book 1.79
All matches
Atalanta — Kairat, UEFA Europa Conference League
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
84%11%
AtalantaMarket 1.2084%DrawMarket 7.4911%KairatMarket 14.305%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atalanta1.191.20+1.7
XDraw9.237.49-0.9
2Kairat19.7614.30-0.8
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3682 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3671 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3661 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AtalantaKairat
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 84%, FK Kairat Almaty 5%. The safest is “Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio or draw” at 95%.
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 84%Draw 11%FK Kairat Almaty 5%
Bookmakers: 1.20 · 7.49 · 14.30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 2.5
68%1.43
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtalantaKairatCombined
Goals scored2.202.004.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Atalanta- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches12 goals conceded
- 11 goals in the last 5 matches2:2, 4:4, 0:2, 2:3, 3:1
- One win in the last 5 matches2:2, 4:4, 0:2, 2:3, 3:1
Kairat- 10 goals in the last 5 matches2:2, 1:5, 5:0, 1:1, 1:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Atalanta
- awayFiorentina2:2
- homeFrosinone4:4
- awayAjax0:2
- awayAC Milan2:3
- homePaphos3:1
Kairat
- awayAktobe2:2
- homePanathinaikos1:5
- homeIrtysh Pavlodar5:0
- awayRiga1:1
- homeZhetysu Taldykorgan1:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.