All matches

1. FC Nürnberg — VfL Wolfsburg, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. Bundesliga

1. FC Nürnberg
2.2WWDWW
—
VfL Wolfsburg
1.4WLDWW
Outcome probability
442630
1. FC Nürnberg44%Draw26%VfL Wolfsburg30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
11. FC Nürnberg44%2.27—
XDraw26%3.89—
2VfL Wolfsburg30%3.30—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.62

No38%

ours 2.62

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

Metric1. FC NürnbergVfL WolfsburgCombined
Goals scored2.672.505.17
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners10.513.712.1
Cards2.21.73.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    1. FC NürnbergVfL Wolfsburg
    2Table position4
    57.00%Possession57.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour 1. FC Nürnberg: a home win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

1. FC Nürnberg

  • awayKarlsruher SC1:0
  • homeHannoverscher Sportverein 18962:1
  • awayKieler SV Holstein 19002:2
  • homeDSC Arminia Bielefeld4:1
  • awaySpVgg Greuther Fürth4:2

VfL Wolfsburg

  • homeSV Darmstadt 18985:1
  • awayFC St. Pauli0:1
  • homeFC Energie Cottbus4:4
  • awayKarlsruher SC5:2
  • awayHannoverscher Sportverein 18961:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Hertha BSC660017:718
21. FC Nürnberg651016:616
31. FC Heidenheim 1846641114:1213
4VfL Wolfsburg632115:811
51. FC Kaiserslautern63216:411
61. FC Magdeburg631211:910

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.