All matches

Viking — Fredrikstad, Eliteserien

Norway, Eliteserien

Viking
3.7WWLDW
—
Fredrikstad
2.0DDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
70%19%11%
Viking70%Draw19%Fredrikstad11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Viking70%1.43—
XDraw19%5.29—
2Fredrikstad11%8.93—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVikingFredrikstadCombined
Goals scored2.171.333.50
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners11.311.411.3
Cards1.31.62.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

VikingFredrikstad

Viking FK 70%, Fredrikstad FK 11%. The safest is “Viking FK or draw” at 86%.

Viking FK 70%Draw 19%Fredrikstad FK 11%
1st half
49 · 32 · 18
2nd half
43 · 38 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Home

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Viking

  • homeLillestrom3:0
  • homeKristiansund8:1
  • awayStuttgart1:3
  • awaySandefjord1:1
  • homeAalesunds2:1

Fredrikstad

  • awayVålerenga Fotball1:1
  • homeSarpsborg 081:1
  • homeBodo/Glimt1:2
  • awayLillestrom4:1
  • homeKristiansund1:0

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Eliteserien2:1
  • 11/23/25Eliteserien1:0
  • 06/22/25Eliteserien3:0
  • 09/22/24Eliteserien2:3
  • 04/21/24Eliteserien1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Viking21162354:2050
2Bodo/Glimt20152350:1747
3Tromso21115540:2938
4Molde21113744:3236
5Rosenborg21103839:3033
6Lillestrom21102928:2932
7Brann21921039:3229
8Fredrikstad2184925:3228
9Sarpsborg 082167824:2925
10KFUM21741025:3525

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.