Venados — Leones Negros, Ascenso MX

Mexico, Ascenso MXOctober 10 at 11:00 PM

Venados

WWLWL

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Leones Negros

WWLDW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

53%21%26%

VenadosMarket 1.9053%DrawMarket 3.7221%Leones NegrosMarket 3.2226%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Venados53%53%1.901.90-0.1

XDraw21%27%4.723.72-5.7

2Leones Negros26%31%3.813.22-4.8

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes73%

ours 1.38book 1.40

No27%

ours 3.65book 2.70

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

VenadosLeones Negros

Venados FC Yucatán 53%, Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 79%.

Venados FC Yucatán 53%Draw 21%Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 26%

1st half

35 · 36 · 30

2nd half

52 · 26 · 22

Bookmakers: 1.90 · 3.72 · 3.22

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVenadosLeones NegrosCombined

Goals scored2.332.334.66

Conceded1.831.673.50

Corners11.79.810.8

Cards4.02.36.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.