All matches

Flora — Levadia, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Flora
3.0WWDWW
—
Levadia
4.1DWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
27%20%53%
Flora27%Draw20%Levadia53%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Flora27%3.74—
XDraw20%4.94—
2Levadia53%1.89—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76

No43%

ours 2.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFloraLevadiaCombined
Goals scored2.172.835.00
Conceded1.500.171.67
Corners8.611.410.0
Cards1.22.03.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FloraLevadia

Tallinna FC Flora 27%, Tallinna FC Levadia 53%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.

Tallinna FC Flora 27%Draw 20%Tallinna FC Levadia 53%
1st half
28 · 36 · 36
2nd half
25 · 35 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

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Form and context

Flora

  • homeVaprus Parnu3:2
  • awayNomme United3:2
  • awayNarva Trans2:2
  • homeNomme Kalju2:1
  • homeTammeka Tartu3:2

Levadia

  • awayNarva Trans1:1
  • homeTammeka Tartu6:0
  • homeVaprus Parnu4:0
  • homeKuressaare4:0
  • awayPaide2:0

Head to head

  • 06/28/26Meistriliiga2:1
  • 06/13/26Meistriliiga1:3
  • 04/19/26Meistriliiga0:4
  • 09/24/25Meistriliiga2:3
  • 09/17/25Meistriliiga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Levadia29226181:2172
2Flora291811059:3955
3Paide29156848:3651
4Nomme Kalju29155952:2750

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.