All matches

St. Louis City — Portland Timbers, MLS

USA, MLS

St. Louis City
1.8WWWDW
—
Portland Timbers
1.7LLLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
53%24%23%
St. Louis City53%Draw24%Portland Timbers23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1St. Louis City53%1.89—
XDraw24%4.23—
2Portland Timbers23%4.27—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.62

No38%

ours 2.61

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSt. Louis CityPortland TimbersCombined
Goals scored1.000.171.17
Conceded0.170.670.84
Corners9.511.010.3
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

St. Louis CityPortland Timbers

St. Louis City SC 53%, Portland Timbers 23%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

St. Louis City SC 53%Draw 24%Portland Timbers 23%
1st half
47 · 33 · 19
2nd half
32 · 37 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

St. Louis City

  • awayNew York Red Bulls3:0
  • homeToronto3:1
  • homeMinnesota United4:2
  • awayPortland Timbers2:2
  • awayVancouver Whitecaps3:1

Portland Timbers

  • awaySan Jose Earthquakes1:3
  • homeAtlanta United0:1
  • awayDallas1:2
  • homeSt. Louis City2:2
  • homeMinnesota United5:4

Head to head

  • 09/10/26MLS2:2
  • 07/13/25MLS2:1
  • 06/08/25MLS1:2
  • 08/25/24MLS4:4
  • 06/09/24MLS0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Nashville SC27186355:2160
2Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:2650
3St. Louis City27138648:3647
4Dallas27138650:4247
5Inter Miami271210564:5046
6New England Revolution27144945:3646
7San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
8Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
9Charlotte27127847:3843
10Chicago Fire26126846:3842
11Los Angeles28118943:3041
12Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
13Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
14Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
15LA Galaxy28991037:4436
16Orlando City271041348:6434
17New York City27891041:3633
18Cincinnati2689955:6433
19New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
20San Diego27881147:4732
21Portland Timbers27951348:5132
22Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
23Austin277101035:4731

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.