Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.90
No47%
ours 2.11
All matches
—
Super Nova — RFS, Virsliga
Latvia, Virsliga
Super Nova
1.2LLWWD
RFS
4.0DWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
12%17%70%
Super Nova12%Draw17%RFS70%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Super Nova8.12—
XDraw5.81—
2RFS1.42—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSuper NovaRFSCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners12.312.312.3
Cards1.31.32.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Super NovaRFS
SK Super Nova 12%, FK Rīgas Futbola skola 70%. The safest is “FK Rīgas Futbola skola or draw” at 83%.
SK Super Nova 12%Draw 17%FK Rīgas Futbola skola 70%
1st half
20 · 33 · 47
2nd half
21 · 38 · 41
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Super Nova
- awayOgre United0:1
- homeRiga0:1
- homeTukums1:0
- awayFS Jelgava1:0
- awayAuda Riga1:1
RFS
- awayAuda Riga1:1
- awayDaugavpils2:1
- homeLiepaja0:0
- awayOgre United3:0
- homeRiga3:3
Head to head
- 05/29/26Virsliga1:2
- 04/18/26Virsliga0:2
- 11/02/25Virsliga1:3
- 08/10/25Virsliga1:4
- 06/14/25Virsliga1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1RFS30235271:2274
RFS30235271:22742
Riga31227286:3073
Riga31227286:30733
Auda Riga31187649:3061
Auda Riga31187649:30614
Liepaja311271241:4343
Liepaja311271241:43435
Daugavpils311091235:3539
Daugavpils311091235:35396Super Nova301051529:4035
Super Nova301051529:40357
FS Jelgava31881532:4932
FS Jelgava31881532:49328
Grobina315111521:5226
Grobina315111521:5226Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.