Seattle Sounders — Houston Dynamo, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 29 at 02:30 AM

Seattle Sounders

2.3WWWDD

—

Houston Dynamo

2.1LDLWD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

49%25%26%

Seattle Sounders49%Draw25%Houston Dynamo26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Seattle Sounders49%2.04—

XDraw25%3.99—

2Houston Dynamo26%3.85—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSeattle SoundersHouston DynamoCombined

Goals scored0.830.331.16

Conceded0.330.671.00

Corners14.510.512.5

Cards1.50.52.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Seattle SoundersHouston Dynamo

Seattle Sounders FC 49%, Houston Dynamo 26%. The safest is “Seattle Sounders FC or draw” at 75%.

Seattle Sounders FC 49%Draw 25%Houston Dynamo 26%

1st half

37 · 40 · 23

2nd half

37 · 38 · 25

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context