All matches

Lyon — Angers, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Lyon
3.0WWDWD
—
Angers
1.3WDLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
66%21%13%
Lyon66%Draw21%Angers13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lyon66%1.52—
XDraw21%4.72—
2Angers13%7.73—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLyonAngersCombined
Goals scored0.670.501.17
Conceded0.000.330.33
Corners11.013.712.3
Cards4.01.75.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LyonAngers

Olympique Lyonnais 66%, Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest 13%. The safest is “Olympique Lyonnais or draw” at 86%.

Olympique Lyonnais 66%Draw 21%Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest 13%
1st half
49 · 36 · 15
2nd half
40 · 38 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Lyon

  • homeRennes4:0
  • awayAnderlecht2:1
  • awayParis FC0:0
  • homeAuxerre3:1
  • homeLe Havre1:1

Angers

  • homeTroyes2:0
  • awayLe Havre0:0
  • homeRennes1:2
  • awayAuxerre3:1
  • homeLille0:2

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Ligue 10:0
  • 09/19/25Ligue 11:0
  • 05/17/25Ligue 12:0
  • 12/07/24Ligue 13:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Monaco54108:313
2Lyon532010:211
3Paris FC53208:311
4Lille53118:410
5Rennes53118:910
6PSG52218:78
7Angers52126:57
8Strasbourg521210:107
9Le Mans51319:96

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.