Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.22
All matches
—
Motherwell — St. Mirren, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Motherwell
2.1LLLWD
St. Mirren
1.3LLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
58%23%18%
Motherwell58%Draw23%St. Mirren18%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Motherwell1.71—
XDraw4.28—
2St. Mirren5.47—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMotherwellSt. MirrenCombined
Goals scored0.170.000.17
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners12.511.512.0
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MotherwellSt. Mirren
Motherwell FC 58%, Saint Mirren FC 18%. The safest is “Motherwell FC or draw” at 79%.
Motherwell FC 58%Draw 23%Saint Mirren FC 18%
1st half
42 · 36 · 22
2nd half
39 · 38 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Motherwell
- awayDundee1:2
- homeAberdeen0:4
- awayRangers0:1
- homeDundee United3:0
- awaySt. Mirren3:3
St. Mirren
- homeDundee United0:3
- awayRangers0:1
- homeCeltic1:2
- awayKilmarnock1:0
- homeMotherwell3:3
Head to head
- 08/30/26Premiership3:3
- 02/21/26Premiership5:0
- 01/03/26Premiership2:0
- 08/09/25Premiership0:0
- 03/15/25Premiership2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Hearts741214:813
Hearts741214:8134
Dundee73139:710
Dundee73139:7105St. Mirren73138:910
St. Mirren73138:9106
Saint Johnstone72239:108
Saint Johnstone72239:1087
Aberdeen72237:88
Aberdeen72237:888
Dundee United72239:118
Dundee United72239:1189Motherwell72239:118
Motherwell72239:11810
Hibernian72148:117
Hibernian72148:11711
Falkirk71336:96
Falkirk71336:96Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.