All matches

Millonarios — America de Cali, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera A

Millonarios
2.6DDWWD
—
America de Cali
2.9WWDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
47%27%26%
Millonarios47%Draw27%America de Cali26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Millonarios47%2.11—
XDraw27%3.72—
2America de Cali26%3.87—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMillonariosAmerica de CaliCombined
Goals scored1.000.501.50
Conceded0.500.170.67
Corners7.711.59.6
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MillonariosAmerica de Cali

Millonarios FC SA 47%, Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA 26%. The safest is “Millonarios FC SA or draw” at 76%.

Millonarios FC SA 47%Draw 27%Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA 26%
1st half
39 · 40 · 21
2nd half
35 · 39 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Millonarios

  • awayIndependiente Medellin2:2
  • awayAtletico Nacional1:1
  • homeBoyaca Chico3:0
  • awayCucuta Deportivo2:1
  • homeDeportivo Cali1:1

America de Cali

  • awayLlaneros2:1
  • homeRionegro Aguilas1:0
  • awayDeportes Tolima1:1
  • homePasto0:1
  • homeAlianza Valledupar3:0

Head to head

  • 04/20/26Categoria Primera A1:3
  • 10/08/25Categoria Primera A2:1
  • 04/17/25Categoria Primera A0:0
  • 10/12/24Categoria Primera A1:2
  • 02/08/24Categoria Primera A1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Atletico Nacional35252870:3177
2America de Cali33187850:2761
3Independiente Santa Fe351415654:3657
4Deportes Tolima351511946:3456
5Junior361581354:4853
6Deportivo Cali31149840:2551
7Millonarios321211949:3447
8Once Caldas331114848:4147
9Bucaramanga301113646:3046

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.