Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.33
All matches
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Melbourne Victory — Central Coast Mariners, A-League
Australia, A-League
Melbourne Victory
2.2LWDDL
Central Coast Mariners
1.6LWDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
58%23%19%
Melbourne Victory58%Draw23%Central Coast Mariners19%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Melbourne Victory1.73—
XDraw4.35—
2Central Coast Mariners5.25—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMelbourne VictoryCentral Coast MarinersCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners12.510.311.4
Cards1.52.33.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners
Melbourne Victory FC 58%, Central Coast Mariners FC 19%. The safest is “Melbourne Victory FC or draw” at 87%.
Melbourne Victory FC 58%Draw 23%Central Coast Mariners FC 19%
1st half
48 · 34 · 18
2nd half
48 · 32 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Melbourne Victory
- homeSydney0:1
- awayWestern Sydney Wanderers2:0
- homeNewcastle Jets2:2
- awayAuckland2:2
- homeWellington Phoenix0:1
Central Coast Mariners
- awayNewcastle Jets0:4
- awayAuckland1:0
- homeBrisbane Roar2:2
- awayMelbourne City1:2
- homePerth Glory2:2
Head to head
- 03/21/26A-League4:1
- 02/01/26A-League0:1
- 03/08/25A-League3:0
- 10/18/24A-League0:0
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.