Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.65
No39%
ours 2.53
All matches
—
Los Angeles — LA Galaxy, MLS
USA, MLS
Los Angeles
2.6LDLWD
LA Galaxy
1.8WWDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
54%24%22%
Los Angeles54%Draw24%LA Galaxy22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Los Angeles1.84—
XDraw4.24—
2LA Galaxy4.54—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLos AngelesLA GalaxyCombined
Goals scored0.501.171.67
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners14.711.012.8
Cards2.70.73.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Los AngelesLA Galaxy
Los Angeles FC 54%, LA Galaxy 22%. The safest is “Los Angeles FC or draw” at 78%.
Los Angeles FC 54%Draw 24%LA Galaxy 22%
1st half
48 · 33 · 20
2nd half
36 · 38 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Los Angeles
- awayDallas0:1
- awaySan Jose Earthquakes2:2
- awaySporting Kansas City1:3
- homeNew York Red Bulls2:0
- awayReal Salt Lake2:2
LA Galaxy
- homeColorado Rapids3:2
- awayMinnesota United3:2
- homeSeattle Sounders1:1
- awayVancouver Whitecaps0:3
- homeNew England Revolution2:1
Head to head
- 07/18/26MLS3:0
- 07/20/25MLS3:3
- 05/19/25MLS2:2
- 09/15/24MLS2:4
- 07/05/24MLS2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:384310
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112
Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:3633Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.